GOAZCATS.com - Arizona Baseball 2009 Outlook

February 9, 2009

Derrick Fazendin
GOAZCATS.com Staff Writer

The Arizona baseball team had its first organized practice last Monday, marking the official beginning of the 2009 campaign. The 'Cats are in pursuit of their third consecutive 40-win season, which would tie the all time school record for 40-plus win seasons in a row.

GOAZCATS.com was at Baseball Media Day to get a firsthand look on how the Wildcats should fare this year. Here's the breakdown for the 2009 Arizona Wildcats.

Inside the numbers: The Wildcats lost a school record 11 players, this off-season due to the MLB Draft, including 2 first round picks, Daniel Schlereth and Ryan Perry. The team only has 5 seniors compared to 13 freshmen, who make up a whopping 37% of the team's roster. Arizona comes into the season ranked #27 in the nation in the USA Today/ESPN Top 25 Coaches' Poll. This is quite a drop off, at least rankings wise, when you consider that the 'Cats were ranked in the top 5 in almost every major poll just 1 year ago. Obviously a big reason for this is the lack of senior leadership. The Wildcats are predicted to finish in the middle of the Pac-10 this year, finishing 5th according to a vote of Pac-10 coaches, however Arizona did receive 1 first place vote.

The Conference: The Pac-10 winner "will be the team that just continues to get better everyday," according to UA manager Andy Lopez. What he's trying to say is: No one really has a clue quite yet. The conference as a whole is extremely young this year, with four out of the 10 teams in the conference losing stars in the first round of the MLB Draft. Stanford comes into the year ranked sixth in the nation and leading the Pac-10, with #7 Arizona State and #22 UCLA rounding out the preseason ranked teams from the conference. Arizona only finished 13 points behind projected Pac-10 champions Arizona State, just to give an idea on how tight the league is this year.

They're Baaaack: Though the 'Cats did lose a lot of talent over the off-season, it's not like the team is out for the count; not even close. Arizona is ecstatic to have superstar third basemen Brad Glenn returning for his senior year after injuring his throwing hand last fall. "I expect to drive in a lot of runs and have a huge year," Glenn said. Glenn enters the year with a shot to break into the top 10 in UA and Pac-10 history in all time RBIs with a 50 + RBI season this year. Glenn, however, is not the only senior star returning for the 'Cats in 2009. Surprise, surprise, last year's ace, Preston Guilmet also makes a shocking return for Arizona after deciding not to go through with the MLB Draft this past off-season. "It feels completely normal, it's really all normal," Guilmet said about being back for one more year. Guilmet enters the year as the ace to the pitching staff once again and is currently fourth all-time at the UA in career strikeouts with 326. Expect both these guys to have big years and to be the main two leaders, not only performance wise, but in the clubhouse as well.

The Pitching: Obviously the losses of Schlereth and Perry in the bullpen will hurt, but the fallout won't be as drastic as one would think. People sometimes seem to forget that Arizona owns arguably the best closer in the nation in Jason Stoffel. Stoffel, who set a UA single season record with 13 saves in 2008, is expected to build on his impressive season last year now that he is the number one option in the Wildcat pen. Filling the void of the two first rounders will be guys like senior Cory Burns, who set Stoffel up his sophomore year, and a combination of sophomore studs, Ryan Doyle and Matt Chaffee. Now that Guilmet is returning to be the anchor of the starting staff, don't expect too much of a drop off there either. Look out for the junior college transfer, Matt Veltmann, to step in right away and start sitting guys down. "He's got good stuff, I'd like to think we've got a pretty good bunch hitters and he's run through them pretty well already," Stoffel said. Freshman Donn Roach is expected to round out the starting staff and be the Sunday guy for this team. Similar to Veltmann, Roach has the stuff to get the job done. However, confidence may be a factor for him if he gets off to a shaky start.

The Bats: Offensively there are a few question marks in the lineup. Besides key returnees like: 3B Brad Glenn, OF Bobby Croyle, 2B Mike Weldon, SS Bryce Ortega and 1B Dillon Baird, there is a lot of uncertainty with the bats. Obviously Ortega, Croyle, and Weldon can set the table and Glenn and Baird can knock the runs in, but that still leaves quite a few holes to fill in the lineup. Some guys that don't get a lot of hype and have potential to step up are C Dwight Childs - who has started 92 games behind the plate over the past two seasons - and Rafael Valenzuela, who with more playing time has the potential to be a guy that can knock in some runs for the club. Look for Lopez to switch the lineups around early and often this year, trying to find the right lineup that will produce consistently.

Omaha bound? A young team does not always translate into a mediocre team. Sometimes being young just means you have talent that has yet to be discovered, which could very well be the case for these guys. Luckily for the Wildcats, Arizona has an incredibly favorable schedule compared to last year's, playing 35 of its 55 regular season games at the friendly confines of Jerry Kindall Field. Not only will this schedule give the young guys a better chance to develop, providing more practice time, but this will also allow academics to be a lot easier this year. With mostly a veteran infield, expect this team to be a lot better defensively than last year, giving the pitchers more confidence knowing they have a consistent defense to back them up. When you are playing in a conference as wide open as the Pac-10 is this year, you're always going to have a chance. Not to mention that this team has a manager that has taken four different programs to the College World Series in Andy Lopez.

The Prediction: The 'Cats finished 42-19 last year. Don't expect quite the same amount of success record-wise this year, as the team will struggle early to find chemistry with the bats. The pitching will keep the team afloat until the bats start to swing halfway through the year. With a late season serge the 'Cats end up finishing the regular season with a 33-22 record, finishing a respectable third in the conference and fighting their way out of the Regionals. The 2009 season will be all too similar to 2008 and come to an end in the Super Regionals once again. Don't count the 'Cats out though. After all, if Fresno State can do it, anyone can.

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