November 19, 2009

Olin Buchanan
Rivals.com College Football

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California projected as the most serious challenger to the Trojans' streak of seven consecutive conference championships.

And what do you know? After 11 weeks of football, the Trojans and Bears are tied in the Pac-10 standings - for fifth place.

In a largely uneventful - and in some cases dull - season, the Pac-10 race has been refreshingly unpredictable.

Consider that two teams control their own destiny in the championship race, and it's neither USC nor Cal. Instead, it's Oregon and Arizona.

Stanford has run up more than 50 points in back-to-back wins over Oregon and USC, but the Cardinal still need help to get to the Rose Bowl.

The Pac-10 has more teams (five) in the latest BCS standings than any other conference.

"I think it's the best league in the country," Oregon coach Chip Kelly said.

What's this? West Coast bias?

If nothing else, the Pac-10 has given a jolt of intrigue to a largely mundane season. Almost all the conference races could have been chalked up in August.

Ohio State won the Big Ten, again. Georgia Tech, a preseason top-15 pick, appears the class of the ACC. Texas is dominant in the Big 12. Alabama and Florida already have won their SEC divisions. Preseason favorite Pittsburgh is in strong contention in the Big East. TCU is in control of the Mountain West. Boise State is cruising in the WAC. Troy is in great shape in the Sun Belt. Central Michigan looks like the best team in the MAC.

But the Pac-10 is different. If everything fell just right in the next three weeks, the Pac-10 could end in a six-way tie.

"This is as good and as deep a conference as I can recall," UCLA coach Rick Neuheisel said. "You better be able to play each week, or you'll face consequences."

No team knows that better than USC. The Trojans beat Big Ten champion Ohio State in Columbus, then lost to Washington. They won at Notre Dame, and two weeks later were beaten 47-20 at Oregon. They lost last week to Stanford. The Trojans' three losses are the most they've endured since 2001. And more could be on the way.

But no one out West is gloating.

"I honestly think SC set the bar and everybody is working like crazy to rise up to that standard," Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh said.

Oregon's Kelly is in agreement.

"I think Coach [Pete] Carroll set the standard for this league," he said. "Everybody has been trying to keep up with him, and it's raised the competition level in the league."

It has raised the league's national profile, too.

Of course, some astute observers saw all this coming in August.

Well, they saw the Trojans being vulnerable.

But seeing USC trailing Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford and Arizona in the Pac-10 standings in mid-November?

Nobody saw that coming.

KEY MATCHUP: Stanford RB Toby Gerhart vs. California run defense. Prevailing in "The Big Game" will require a big effort from California's run defense. The Bears rank second in the Pac-10 against the run, allowing an average of just 104.1 yards per game and 3.12 yards per carry. They will have to be at their best to contain Gerhart, who ranks third in the nation with 1,395 rushing yards. Gerhart can enhance his Heisman candidacy with a strong game.

PLAYERS ON THE SPOT: Arizona State's and UCLA's quarterbacks. Both teams still need some more wins to gain bowl eligibility, and each will need solid quarterback play to succeed against good defensive teams on Saturday. UCLA's Kevin Prince has passed for more than 300 yards in two of the Bruins' past three games and will need to be on target against the Sun Devils, who rank third in the Pac-10 in pass defense. The Bruins need one more win for bowl eligibility. Meanwhile, sophomore QB Samson Szakacsy is the likely starter for Arizona State, which needs to win twice more for bowl eligibility. He'll face a UCLA defense that is second in the Pac-10 against the pass and leads the conference in interceptions. In addition, a loss would ensure that Sun Devils coach Dennis Erickson will endure back-to-back losing seasons for the first time in his college career.

NUMBERS GAME: California and Stanford enter "The Big Game" with identical 7-3 records. That's unusual. Not since 1991 have both teams entered the game with at least seven wins. Sixth-ranked Cal was 9-1 and No. 21 Stanford was 7-3 in 1991. Stanford prevailed 38-21.

WHAT THEY'RE SAYING:

"Nick has always been cool, calm and collected. It's happened to him, these bad situations, but he's always overcome it and played the next play. I'm sure the first play of the next game, he'll be over it." - Arizona TB Nicolas Grigsby, on QB Nick Foles, who committed a costly illegal forward pass in last week's loss to Cal

"That was probably the worst feeling I've ever had at Cal. Going 0-6 against USC is pretty bad, but losing the Axe in '07 was the worst feeling. It tears you apart. It means a lot to us." - Cal OT Mike Tepper, who's been in the program six years, on losing to Stanford two years ago. The Stanford Axe is awarded annually to the Cal-Stanford winner

"I think he's the all-conference quarterback this year. All you have to do is look at the numbers and where our team is under his leadership. I'd say that for sure." - Oregon State coach Mike Riley, on QB Sean Canfield

ETC.: Arizona's defense has surrendered just three touchdowns in the past three games, and the Wildcats offensive line has given up just seven sacks in the past nine games. Wildcats DE Ricky Elmore leads the Pac-10 with 8.5 sacks. ... Cal coach Jeff Tedford said there is no chance injured RB Jahvid Best (concussion) will play against Stanford. ... Oregon TE Ed Dickson and RB LaMichael James were among several Ducks who missed practices this week because of illness. With 1,193 yards, James is the first Oregon freshman to reach 1,000 in a season. He needs 61 more to break the Pac-10 freshman record set last season by Oregon State's Jacquizz Rodgers. ... As for Rodgers, he has 17 rushing touchdowns this season and needs three more to break the school single-season record held by Ken Simonton and Steven Jackson. ... Oregon State is bowl eligible for the fourth consecutive season, a first-time accomplishment for the Beavers. ... Stanford has exceeded 50 points in its past two games. The Cardinal haven't accomplished that since 1999, when they did it against Washington State and Arizona. ... UCLA FS Rahim Moore has increased his nation's-leading interception total to nine. ... USC leads the Pac-10 with 32 sacks. DEs Everson Griffen and Nick Perry lead the Trojans with eight and seven sacks, respectively. ... Washington redshirt freshman RB Chris Polk has exceeded 100 rushing yards in four of the past six games and has hit triple digits in back-to-back games. Huskies WR Jermaine Kearse has four TD catches in the past two weeks. ... Washington State LB Jason Stripling's status is uncertain this week after being arrested for fourth-degree assault early last Sunday. He ranks fifth in tackles for the Cougars.

Olin Buchanan is the senior college football writer for Rivals.com. He can be reached at olin@rivals.com.